Georgia and Russia on brink of qualification
Another piece of Rugby World Cup history could be made on
Saturday with Russia just one win away from realising their target
of qualifying for the sport's showpiece tournament for the
first time ever.
Russia will secure their place at New Zealand 2011 with
victory over Romania in Sochi, a result which will guarantee them a
minimum of 24 points in the European Nations Cup 2010 - a figure
unobtainable by either Romania or Portugal.
They will qualify as either Europe 1 or 2 - ENC champions or
runners-up - although which one and therefore their place in Pool B
or C is unlikely to be decided until they meet Georgia on neutral
soil in Turkey on 20 March.
Georgia currently lead the standings by a single point from
Russia as the only unbeaten side in the competition spanning two
years and can also confirm their place at RWC 2011 by beating Spain
in Tbilisi.
Europe 1 or Europe 2?
A repeat of the Lelos' 55-11 victory when they met in
Madrid a year ago will ensure defending European Nations Cup
champions Georgia will accumulate at least 25 points, even if they
lose their final two games to Romania and Russia.
RWC 2011 will be the third consecutive tournament that
Georgia have qualified for, having made their debut in Australia in
2003 and picked up a first win - over Namibia - four years later as
well as giving Ireland a huge scare in losing 14-10.
The battle will then be on to determine who joins Argentina,
2003 winners England, Scotland and the Play-off winner in Pool B at
RWC 2011 (Europe 1) or two-time champions Australia, Ireland, Italy
and USA in Pool C (Europe 2).
This would also leave Portugal and Romania - an ever present
on the World Cup stage - going head to head to keep alive their RWC
2011 dreams by securing third spot in the division.
They would then face either Lithuania or the Division 2A
winner for the right to enter the cross-continental play-off, where
they will have to beat Tunisia to earn the right to play Uruguay or
the Asian Five Nations runner-up to determine the 20th and final
qualifier for RWC 2011.
Another positive step
Romania do have a game in hand after the postponement of
their encounter with Spain, but by the time that is played on 27
March in Bucharest the Oaks' dream could have ended if they
lose to Portugal the week before.
However if Georgia and Russia were to suffer surprise defeats
on home soil then the race to secure Europe's two direct
qualification berths would be thrown wide open, especially if
Portugal also overcome Germany in Heusenstamm on Saturday.
Georgia coach Tim Lane, the former Australia and Springbok
assistant coach, is under no illusions as the importance of
securing World Cup qualification for the continued growth of the
sport in the country.
"It's hard to see the team not progressing,"
Lane told Fox Sports. "After all we have won the second-tier
European Nations Cup tournament, where we play against Russia,
Romania, Portugal, Spain and Germany. The only blip this time
around is our draw with Portugal last year."
"We are fortunate to have a government which is a big
supporter of the Georgian Rugby Union, and one generous individual
who supports the Union financially. The game here is definitely on
the rise, and claiming another World Cup berth will only help to
improve the national team and the Game's status here."
VIEW THE LATEST IRB WORLD RANKINGS >>
While a Georgian victory will secure qualification, it will
not improve their position of 17th in the IRB World Rankings -
unless that is Russia also lose in which case the Lelos would climb
one place. In this instance, USA would do the same to 17th with
Russia sliding three to 19th, below their conquerors Romania.
By contrast a Georgian loss could see them slide as many as
two places to 19th - their lowest ranking in nearly four years -
depending on the outcome of the match in Sochi. Even if Russia win,
a defeat by Spain will still see the Lelos fall one place with
their conquerors potentially rising to a new high of 20th with an
emphatic win.
The USA Eagles could actually end the weekend back in 16th -
a position they lost a fortnight ago when Georgia and Russia picked
up away wins over Portugal and Spain respectively - although this
would require both Georgia and Russia to lose.
Russia could enjoy a double celebration, not only
qualification for a first Rugby World Cup but also their best ever
IRB World Ranking as a victory by more than 15 points will take
them above Tonga to 15th. A smaller win will see them close to
within a tenth of the Pacific islanders.
An emphatic loss for Romania will not alter their position of
19th, given they hold a near four-point cushion over Uruguay.
However a win, allied to a Georgian loss, will see them climb two
places to become the highest ranked of the six nations in Division
1.
Win and fall for Portugal?
Portugal, who currently occupy the crucial third spot in the
ENC standings by two points from Romania, will also not improve
their position of 20th, even with a repeat of their 44-6 rout of
Germany a year ago.
In fact, Tomaz Morais' side could leave Heusenstamm
victorious and still fall in the IRB World Rankings with Spain
guaranteed to climb above them with any margin of victory in
Tbilisi. In this instance Spain would climb two to 21st with
Namibia - already qualified for RWC 2011 - also falling one.
A loss for Portugal could result in a five place slide to
25th - their lowest ever standing - with a loss by more than 15
points. Even a smaller margin of defeat they would still fall two
places, taking them below Namibia and a losing Spanish outfit.
Germany, more than two points adrift of Korea above them in
25th, cannot improve their position with a first ENC 2010 victory.
On the other hand, they will slide three places to 29th with a
fourth successive defeat by Portugal with Ukraine, Kazakhstan and
Brazil the beneficiaries.
There is one other European Nations Cup encounter - albeit
not a RWC 2011 qualifier - this weekend as Greece welcome Finland
to Patras in Division 3C. However, this will not effect the
rankings as Greece are not yet a Full Member Union of the
International Rugby Board and therefore not ranked.
The IRB World Rankings update every Monday at 12:00 UK
time.
