Georgia and Russia on brink of qualification

(RUGBYWORLDCUP.COM) Friday 26 February 2010


 
 Georgia and Russia on brink of qualification
Alexander Yanyushkin helped Russia edge past Portugal in driving rain earlier this month - Photo: Stas Kolpakov

Another piece of Rugby World Cup history could be made on Saturday with Russia just one win away from realising their target of qualifying for the sport's showpiece tournament for the first time ever.

Russia will secure their place at New Zealand 2011 with victory over Romania in Sochi, a result which will guarantee them a minimum of 24 points in the European Nations Cup 2010 - a figure unobtainable by either Romania or Portugal.

They will qualify as either Europe 1 or 2 - ENC champions or runners-up - although which one and therefore their place in Pool B or C is unlikely to be decided until they meet Georgia on neutral soil in Turkey on 20 March.

Georgia currently lead the standings by a single point from Russia as the only unbeaten side in the competition spanning two years and can also confirm their place at RWC 2011 by beating Spain in Tbilisi.

Europe 1 or Europe 2?

A repeat of the Lelos' 55-11 victory when they met in Madrid a year ago will ensure defending European Nations Cup champions Georgia will accumulate at least 25 points, even if they lose their final two games to Romania and Russia.

RWC 2011 will be the third consecutive tournament that Georgia have qualified for, having made their debut in Australia in 2003 and picked up a first win - over Namibia - four years later as well as giving Ireland a huge scare in losing 14-10.

The battle will then be on to determine who joins Argentina, 2003 winners England, Scotland and the Play-off winner in Pool B at RWC 2011 (Europe 1) or two-time champions Australia, Ireland, Italy and USA in Pool C (Europe 2).

This would also leave Portugal and Romania - an ever present on the World Cup stage - going head to head to keep alive their RWC 2011 dreams by securing third spot in the division.

They would then face either Lithuania or the Division 2A winner for the right to enter the cross-continental play-off, where they will have to beat Tunisia to earn the right to play Uruguay or the Asian Five Nations runner-up to determine the 20th and final qualifier for RWC 2011.

Another positive step

Romania do have a game in hand after the postponement of their encounter with Spain, but by the time that is played on 27 March in Bucharest the Oaks' dream could have ended if they lose to Portugal the week before.

However if Georgia and Russia were to suffer surprise defeats on home soil then the race to secure Europe's two direct qualification berths would be thrown wide open, especially if Portugal also overcome Germany in Heusenstamm on Saturday.

Georgia coach Tim Lane, the former Australia and Springbok assistant coach, is under no illusions as the importance of securing World Cup qualification for the continued growth of the sport in the country.

"It's hard to see the team not progressing," Lane told Fox Sports. "After all we have won the second-tier European Nations Cup tournament, where we play against Russia, Romania, Portugal, Spain and Germany. The only blip this time around is our draw with Portugal last year."

"We are fortunate to have a government which is a big supporter of the Georgian Rugby Union, and one generous individual who supports the Union financially. The game here is definitely on the rise, and claiming another World Cup berth will only help to improve the national team and the Game's status here."

VIEW THE LATEST IRB WORLD RANKINGS >>

While a Georgian victory will secure qualification, it will not improve their position of 17th in the IRB World Rankings - unless that is Russia also lose in which case the Lelos would climb one place. In this instance, USA would do the same to 17th with Russia sliding three to 19th, below their conquerors Romania.

By contrast a Georgian loss could see them slide as many as two places to 19th - their lowest ranking in nearly four years - depending on the outcome of the match in Sochi. Even if Russia win, a defeat by Spain will still see the Lelos fall one place with their conquerors potentially rising to a new high of 20th with an emphatic win.

The USA Eagles could actually end the weekend back in 16th - a position they lost a fortnight ago when Georgia and Russia picked up away wins over Portugal and Spain respectively - although this would require both Georgia and Russia to lose.

Russia could enjoy a double celebration, not only qualification for a first Rugby World Cup but also their best ever IRB World Ranking as a victory by more than 15 points will take them above Tonga to 15th. A smaller win will see them close to within a tenth of the Pacific islanders.

An emphatic loss for Romania will not alter their position of 19th, given they hold a near four-point cushion over Uruguay. However a win, allied to a Georgian loss, will see them climb two places to become the highest ranked of the six nations in Division 1.

Win and fall for Portugal?

Portugal, who currently occupy the crucial third spot in the ENC standings by two points from Romania, will also not improve their position of 20th, even with a repeat of their 44-6 rout of Germany a year ago.

In fact, Tomaz Morais' side could leave Heusenstamm victorious and still fall in the IRB World Rankings with Spain guaranteed to climb above them with any margin of victory in Tbilisi. In this instance Spain would climb two to 21st with Namibia - already qualified for RWC 2011 - also falling one.

A loss for Portugal could result in a five place slide to 25th - their lowest ever standing - with a loss by more than 15 points. Even a smaller margin of defeat they would still fall two places, taking them below Namibia and a losing Spanish outfit.

Germany, more than two points adrift of Korea above them in 25th, cannot improve their position with a first ENC 2010 victory. On the other hand, they will slide three places to 29th with a fourth successive defeat by Portugal with Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Brazil the beneficiaries.

There is one other European Nations Cup encounter - albeit not a RWC 2011 qualifier - this weekend as Greece welcome Finland to Patras in Division 3C. However, this will not effect the rankings as Greece are not yet a Full Member Union of the International Rugby Board and therefore not ranked.

The IRB World Rankings update every Monday at 12:00 UK time.

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