Georgia and Russia may have already claimed the two direct
passages to Rugby World Cup 2011, but there is still plenty at
stake in the latest round of European Nations Cup matches this
weekend.
The battle to decide who qualifies as Europe 1 and Europe 2 -
whereby slotting into Pool B or C - is unlikely to be determined
until 20 March when Georgia and Russia meet on neutral soil in
Turkey.
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However, the race to win the European Nations Cup is only one
intriguing element as the top tier enters its final stages, with
Portugal and Romania battling to claim the third spot that will
keep their hopes of playing at RWC 2011 alive.
Portugal currently lead that charge with 17 points, three
more than Romania who do have a game in hand after last month's
encounter with Spain was postponed due to freezing conditions and
snow in Bucharest.
The two sides meet in Lisbon on 20 March for what could
determine third place, but neither will be underestimating the
challenges awaiting them this weekend when Portugal travel over the
border to Madrid and Romania host Georgia.
Georgia have won their last three meetings with Romania,
although two of these have been decided by a single score. Another
loss would not end their hopes of preserving an ever present RWC
record, but it would put pressure on them to then beat Portugal.
Portugal know that victory over Romania will pit them into a
play-off against either Lithuania or the Division 2A winner for the
right to enter the cross-continental play-off to determine the 20th
and final qualifier for RWC 2011.
Their hopes of finishing third may have ended for Spain, but
fourth is not out of their reach yet. On the other hand they are
still also looking over their shoulders, sitting as they do only a
point above Germany in the battle to avoid relegation.
Georgia on the rise?
Germany are the only side in the top tier not to have tasted
victory over the last two seasons, having conceded 213 points and
scored only eight in their three matches so far in 2010.
Their quest for that elusive win on their return to the top
flight after two decades away does not get any easier, when they
travel to Sochi to face a Russian side riding on the crest of a
wave after qualifying for a first ever World Cup.
The Lelos, who have qualified for a third successive Rugby
World Cup, are the highest ranked of the six nations at 16th and
Germany the lowest at 29th after a three-place slide on the back of
that Portugal loss.
A fourth successive win over Romania could see Georgia climb
two places at the expense of Canada and Tonga with a victory by
more than 15 points in Bucharest, a smaller margin will still lift
them above Tonga into 15th.
Romania cannot slip from 19th spot even with an heavy loss
because they currently enjoy a healthy four-point plus advantage
over Uruguay beneath them. Portugal, though, could slash the
deficit to 1.43 points with a comfortable win over Spain, a result
which would take them above Uruguay into 20th.
By contrast a Romania victory by more than 15 points would
improve that position by one place with Georgia slumping three
places on the back of a loss - presuming Russia also beat Germany
in Sochi.
Rise or fall for Spain
A smaller margin would bring Romania to within five tenths of
Georgia, the Lelos still slipping below USA and Russia. If Russia
were to suffer a surprise loss to Germany then the victorious
Romanians would climb above them into 18th.
Russia, though, will retain 18th spot if both they and
Romania lose at home - unless they are beaten by a greater margin.
A Russian victory will not improve their rating, given the 12.75
points and 11 places that separate the two sides in the IRB World
Rankings.
If Germany can spring the surprise of the European Nations
Cup 2010 and bring Russia back down to earth after their historic
qualification, then they will return to 26th. They could actually
enjoy a new high of 25th with a win by more than 15 points and a
Spanish loss by a similar margin.
Spain will fall two places to 25th - slipping below Chile and
Korea - with defeat by their neighbours Portugal. A victory in
Madrid would see Ged Glynn's side swap places with Namibia, but
an emphatic win would also take them above Portugal to equal their
best ever position.
There is one other European Nations Cup match this weekend -
which does not double as a Rugby World Cup 2011 qualifying match -
between Greece and Luxembourg.
However this will not impact the IRB World Rankings as Greece
- coached by former French international Olivier Magne - are not
yet a Full Member Union of the International Rugby Board and
therefore not ranked.
Listen to an interview with Olivier Magne on this
week's Total Rugby Radio >>
The IRB World Rankings update every Monday at 12:00 UK
time.
