On a weekend crammed full of Rugby World Cup 2011 qualifying matches across Asia, Europe and South America there is plenty of scope for movement in the IRB World Rankings when they next update on Monday at 12:00 UK time.
The highest ranked side in action are Japan, who kick off the defence of their HSBC Asian Five Nations title with the visit of Kazakhstan to the Hanazono Stadium in Osaka, while the lowest ranked are Finland in 95th ahead of their European Nations Cup match in Bulgaria.
Even a repeat of Japan’s 82-6 victory over Kazakhstan in last year’s Top Five will not impact their ranking of 16th in any way, given the 18 places and 15.74 ranking points that separate them from their visitors.
The picture is mirrored in the other Asian Five Nations match between Korea and Singapore – making their debut in the Top 5 after winning Division I last year - in Seoul. Korea are currently ranked 22nd, some 27 places and 12.43 rating points above Singapore.
However if Kazakhstan or Singapore can cause a big upset then they will surge up the rankings with Japan swapping places with Russia beneath them and Korea sliding two or three places depending on the final score.
Kazakhstan could climb six or seven places with victory over Japan, depending on the margin they win by and also the outcome of the South American Championship opener between Chile and Brazil in Viña del Mar on Saturday. Singapore will climb between four and six places by beating Korea.
Both of these Asian Five Nations matches form part of the region’s qualifying process for Rugby World Cup 2011, although it is next year’s Top 5 which will determine who books their ticket to New Zealand as Asia 1 and who enters the cross-continental playoff to determine the 20th and final qualifier for the showpiece.
South American pride at stake
The Rugby World Cup qualifying process continues in South America with Chile, Brazil and Uruguay battling for the right to face the loser of the Canada v USA encounters to secure the Americas 2 berth in Pool C with Australia, Ireland, Italy and Europe 2.
Uruguay are the highest ranked of these three nations at 20th with Chile 24th and Brazil 27th and are the only one of the trio to have every played on the World Cup stage, having appeared in both the 2003 and 2007 tournaments.
The Uruguayans are in action this weekend, albeit not in a Rugby World Cup qualifier. They face Paraguay, who join the trio to enable double headers on each day, in Montevideo on Saturday but even an emphatic victory will not improve their position.
Chile will also not see their position change – although their rating points will improve slightly – even with victory by more than 15 points over Brazil on home soil, unless Korea also lose to Singapore.
In the same vein the Brazilians, who began their RWC qualifying campaign last June in the South American B Championship, won’t fall from 27th unless Kazakhstan run riot and beat Japan by more than 15 points or Paraguay can upset Uruguay.
However if Brazil can win in Chile then they could potentially climb as high as 23rd depending on their margin of victory and other results. Chile will slide three places in defeat, but possibly more if the Asian Five Nations gets underway with shock results.
Climbing off the bottom
There also six matches in the European Nations Cup this weekend, although only five can impact the IRB World Rankings, the exception being Greece’s trip to Luxembourg in Division 3C as the visitors are not yet a Full Member Union of the International Rugby Board and therefore not ranked.
Finland travel to Pernik to face Bulgaria in Saturday’s other Division 3C affair in the knowledge that if they can win by more than 15 points they will lift themselves off the foot of the IRB World Rankings to be replaced by their hosts. Bulgaria will slide one to 94th if they lose by a smaller margin.
Bulgaria can improve their position by one, two or three places with victory, depending on the result against Finland and whether 91st ranked Austria can beat the higher ranked Denmark in their Division 3B encounter in Linz.
A victory for Austria would mean a climb of between six and 10 places in the rankings, slashing the gap between them and their visitors Denmark from its current 19 places to potentially as little as four. If the Danes win, then they will climb a minimum of four places, with Austria sliding two places to 93rd.
Must-win matches in Europe
The other Division 3B encounter is a must-win affair for Slovenia, who need to beat lower ranked Norway to climb above Hungary and head the standings at the halfway point of the European Nations Cup and meet the Division 3C top side in the first of the region’s playoffs in the RWC 2011 qualifying process.
Slovenia are currently ranked 59th – some 13 places above Norway – and as a result their rating points will not improve even with a victory by more than 15 points. However they could still climb one place if Latvia lose their Division 2B match in Croatia, the Latvians sitting less than a tenth above Slovenia at present.
A victory for Croatia will see them climb one place to 45th – swapping places with the Arabian Gulf. By contrast Croatia will slide a minimum of four places in defeat with Latvia jumping five to 53rd. A loss by more than 15 points and Latvia would become the higher ranked of the two sides.
The one other European Cup Nations match this weekend is also in Division B with Malta hosting the unbeaten Netherlands. Ten places currently separate the sides with Netherlands the higher ranked at 40th.
The Netherlands will climb between two and four places with victory with Malta sliding as many as three places. The Dutch would fall by a similar margin if they suffer their first defeat, with Malta climbing as many five places if they can record a victory by more than 15 points.
