With two international matches, the penultimate round of the ANZ Pacific Nations Cup and two of the four Rugby World Cup 2011 qualifying matches this weekend taking place in Oceania there is plenty of scope for changes in the IRB World Rankings.
The road to New Zealand 2011 finally kicks off in Oceania this weekend – the last region to get underway – when Papua New Guinea host Vanuatu in Port Moresby and Niue take on the Cook Islands at a neutral venue in New Zealand.
PNG sit 40 places above Vanuatu in the IRB World Rankings ahead of their Oceania Cup encounter and so even a repeat of the 97-3 victory they enjoyed when the sides last met in a RWC qualifier in August 2005 will not have any impact on their position.
By contrast the match in Pukekohe is between two sides separated by only five places and 1.67 rating points with Cook Islands the higher ranked at 55th – although Niue ran out 18-7 winners when they met in last year’s Oceania Cup.
A win in this one-off West division match would see the Cook Islands jump either one or two places depending on the margin of victory with Niue sliding between six and nine places.
However if Niue were to emerge victorious – and so set up an Oceania Cup final against either PNG or Vanuatu next weekend for the right to face Samoa to determine the region’s qualifier for RWC 2011 – then they would become the higher ranked of the two sides.
Niue would jump three places to 57th with Cook Islands taking over their previous position. A win by more than 15 points and the two sides would simply swap places with Cook Islands only holding onto 60th by one hundredth from Slovenia.
France eye top three spot
Three of the top five sides in the IRB World Rankings will be in action this weekend with number one side New Zealand facing Italy in Christchurch and Australia tackling France in Sydney in a case of third versus fifth.
New Zealand ran out 76-14 winners the last time they met Italy – in the pool stages of Rugby World Cup 2007 in France – and even a repeat of that emphatic victory over the 12th ranked Azzurri will not impact their position or rating points.
A first ever defeat by Italy would see New Zealand lose top spot for the first time since last August with world champions South Africa taking their place. Italy, though, would need to win by more than 15 points – or hope that Samoa lose to Fiji in the Pacific Nations Cup – to improve their own position.
Australia, who have secured back to back wins over Italy this month, will increase their cushion over fourth ranked Ireland with victory in Sydney, a result which will see France slip closer to Argentina beneath them.
However a second win on their summer tour – having beaten the All Blacks in their first Test in Dunedin – could see France take over Australia’s third spot if they were to win by more than 15 points, but even then they would still trail South Africa by five points. A win by a smaller margin would still see Les Bleus leapfrog Ireland.
Fiji defend Top 10 spot
The two other matches taking place in the Oceania region this weekend are in the ANZ Pacific Nations Cup with Tonga tackling Japan and Samoa meeting hosts Fiji at Churchill Park in Lautoka on Saturday.
Samoa currently lie second in the standings after beating Tonga 27-13 earlier this week and another victory over Fiji – who are ranked two places above them in ninth – will see them return to the Top 10 for the first time in nearly two years.
The two sides would swap places with a Samoan victory, but if Fiji were to repeat their 34-17 victory in last year’s Pacific Nations Cup then both would retain their positions, with the hosts improving their cushion over Scotland beneath them.
The other match in Lautoka brings together Tonga and Japan, the only two sides yet to taste victory in this year’s competition and currently occupying 14th and 15th spots in the IRB World Rankings respectively.
Japan have won the last two meetings in the Pacific Nations Cup and if they can make it a hat-trick of wins then the two sides will swap places. Tonga could actually fall another place to 16th if they lose by more than 15 points.
By contrast a loss to Tonga will see Japan fall two places beneath Russia and Georgia and closer to the USA Eagles beneath them. Tonga will remain 14th even with a convincing victory, although they will edge closer to Canada.
RWC qualifying focus in Africa
Meanwhile in Africa the qualifying process nears conclusion with the second legs of the Africa Cup semi finals taking place on Saturday with Tunisia hosting Uganda in Tunis and Namibia welcoming Ivory Coast to Windhoek.
Tunisia go into the second leg with a comfortable advantage, having beaten Uganda 41-17 in Kampala a fortnight ago and a similar outcome at Stade El Menzah would see them climb one place to 27th at Kazakhstan’s expense.
Uganda would remain 42nd and still half a point ahead of Croatia with defeat, but were they to cause an upset and win they would jump seven places with Tunisia sliding four places to 32nd.A victory by more than 15 points and they would end the weekend as the higher ranked of the two nations.
The second semi final is finally balanced following a 13-13 draw in Abidjan and Namibia will be hoping to make the most of home advantage at the Hage Geingob Rugby Stadium to keep alive hopes of qualifying for a fourth successive Rugby World Cup.
Namibia are the higher ranked of the four Africa Cup semi finalists at 25th – 15 places above RWC 1995 participant Ivory Coast – and so even a victory by more than 15 points will only improve their rating by just over a tenth.
By contrast a win for Ivory Coast would see them jump seven places to 33rd with Namibia sliding four places – and giving Tunisia an extra one-place climb with a victory in Tunis. A more convincing victory would not result in a bigger gain, but Namibia would fall further to 32nd and less than three tenths above their conquerors.
The IRB World Rankings update every Monday at 12:00 UK time.
